Online Forecast for 2008
SUMMARYAnother year has come to an end but it was truly a year of development in the mobile space - from the hype created by the iPhone, Twitter’s on-the-go instant messaging updates to Google’s move towards an open source Android mobile software development. Social networking sites continue to thrive as sites like Facebook, MySpace and Friendster open up or plan to release their applications to third-party developers to develop widgets/mini-applications. What follows is a new breed of advertising, sometimes referred as social advertising where ads are highly targeted according to users' behaviors/preferences/interests. Software will not only continue to migrate online (cloud computing) but there will be applications that support both offline and online experiences as Google, Adobe and Microsoft continue their experiments. Let’s take a closer look at this year’s online trends.
THE PLAY
- Web Access on Gadgets: The Internet has already become a basic necessity for most of us and everyone wants to connect to the Internet to send emails, socialize, play music/videos or collaborate online. While smartphones have provided better access with better screen displays and navigation, other devices such as MP3 players, e-book readers, digital cameras, cars etc. are likely to have web offerings in them. It all started with Apple’s iPod Touch and Amazon’s Kindle (e-book reader) that have built-in Internet connectivity. Now individuals with digital cameras that have SD slots can plug in the Eye-Fi card and gain Wi-Fi access for auto-uploading pictures to the Internet. SanDisk’s new Titanium USB flash drive will automatically back up digital information to the Internet. Expect to see more gadgets with online access.
- The Open Source Movement: After Facebook’s success of allowing third-party software developers to build applications within its network, several other social networking sites are following the mini-apps trend to drive traffic and maintain their base of users. Last year, Google launched the OpenSocial platform by teaming up with a dozen social networks including Hi5, LinkedIn and Friendster. It remains to be seen whether OpenSocial can fight off competition from Facebook. Other start-ups like Meebo and PeerMe have also opened their APIs for software developers. The year 2008 will see more web services opening up their platforms however it remains to be seen if they will be able to replicate Facebook’s successes.
- Highly Targeted Advertising: As online advertising continues to attract more ad dollars than traditional media, advertisers are now targeting their marketing messages to a specific group of users rather than aiming at the masses of online users. Online giants like Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and AOL have been making deals with online ad agencies specializing in behavioral targeting. Social networking sites have announced ad targeting platforms where ads are highly targeted based on the user demographics, social behaviors and interests etc. It will be interesting to see how publishers and advertisers target ads without infringing privacy issues.
- Semantic Web Set To Take Off: Sometimes referred to as Web 3.0, the technology involves a combination of machine learning and social networking (human intelligence) elements of determining meanings of text/data. A free web-based tool called Twine allows people to organize information that’s important to them be it documents, music, e-mails etc. Twine will also automatically collect all the Web pages visited, e-mails sent and received, and so on. Once Twine has some information, it starts to analyze it and automatically sorts it into categories that include the people involved and concepts discussed as well as places, organizations, and companies. Other apps include Powerset, AdaptiveBlue and TripIt. Expect more developments in this field this year.
- Hybrid Apps Coming Soon: This year could see more web properties offering their tools both online and offline. Addressing the biggest drawback of web applications, only able to be run via internet connection, Google announced its Gears application, Adobe launched Air and Microsoft released Silverlight. These technologies have the ability to make some of the online content available offline. For instance, an eBay application can now be run on Air that allows users to set up auctions offline and are then posted once the user gets online. Many people are already using Twitter’s micro-blogging service from desktop-based apps. Amazon, Flickr and others Web services will soon release offline options to their online services this year.
- All Things Going Mobile: The buzz, particularly about the iPhone last year, has probably given rise to applications moving from the desktop to the mobile devices which include widgets, social networking, maps, VoIP, mobile TV, music/videos etc. Smartphones today have larger screens with better displays and navigation capabilities and consumers are increasingly connected on-the-go. Mobile navigation services or GPS allow mobile phone users (even phones without GPS) to track gas stations, restaurants, friends nearby and pets etc. and this technology will be more prevalent in 2008. Google’s open-source mobile operating system, Android, will take off this year while more competitors will attempt to launch their own OS.
- Proliferation of Aggregation Services: As a typical user has multiple accounts in different web offerings, it has become increasingly difficult to manage/keep track of all the accounts. Aggregation services are those that host several applications be it social networking sites, emails, instant messaging etc. within a single interface. For instance, Spokeo aggregates a user’s network across various social networks and allows an individual to keep track of all their friends' activities whether they are uploading photos, updating Twitter or just bookmarking a product on Amazon. FriendFeed has a similar service offering. Fuser, Orgoo and Xobni are doing the same thing with emails where users can retrieve all their mails from multiple accounts in a single window. Expect to see more of these services that integrate all of user’s Web needs within a single interface in 2008 .
Bob Rattivarakorn
Trends Research Analyst
RarePlay
